Subtropical Storm Nicole prompts Florida hurricane watch

With subtropical storm Nicole forming in the Atlantic Ocean Monday morning, its path is expected to bring it into the state as a hurricane by Wednesday night.

Gov. Ron DeSantis also issued a state of emergency for 34 counties in the storm’s potential path, including all of central Florida.

“While this storm does not appear to be getting stronger at this time, I urge all Floridians to prepare and heed announcements from local emergency management officials,” DeSantis said in the release. , we will continue to monitor the track and intensity of this storm.”

Counties in order are Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, DeSoto, Duval, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Nassau , Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucy, Sumter and Volusia.

As of 1 p.m. EST (2 p.m. EST), the system is located approximately 465 miles east of the northwest Bahamas and approximately 690 miles east of Cape Canaveral, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph /h, moving northwest at 9 mph. The advance is expected to slow later on Monday and move west to southwest from Tuesday to Thursday.

“On the forecast track, the Nicole Center will approach the northwest Bahamas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, move near or over the islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida on Wednesday night,” the NHC consultant said.

Hurricane Watch also issued a tropical storm watch for inland Lake Okeechobee, from north of the Brevard-Volusia County line to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A storm surge watch is also in effect south of the Strait of Altamaha, Georgia, to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Bahamian government has also placed the northwest Bahamas under hurricane watch.

Melbourne’s National Bureau of Meteorology has also placed inland Brevard County under hurricane watch and Inland Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole and Volusia counties under tropical storm watch.

Although now classified as subtropical, with a massive 40 mph wind field with wind speeds of up to 275 mph, forecasts predict it will transition to a tropical system with a sharper eye, with wind speeds around the eye at the center of its circulation higher.

The latest advisory predicts it will become a hurricane Wednesday night as it approaches Florida with 75 mph winds and gusts of up to 90 mph over the Bahamas.

“Regardless of Nicole’s eventual intensity, the storm’s size is likely to cause severe wind, storm surge and rainfall effects across much of the northwest Bahamas, Florida and southeastern coast due to an intensifying pressure gradient north of the storm . For most of the next week, the United States.

The five-day forecast shows a path that could make landfall somewhere between Miami and Brevard counties before heading northwest through the state south of Orlando and into Mexico north of Tampa Bay on Thursday. Bay, then shifts to pull back northeast on Friday, into the southern U.S.

The NHC defines a subtropical cyclone as similar to a tropical system, meaning that a low-pressure system has a closed surface wind cycle with some deep convection around a well-defined center. But its winds will be farther apart than the tropical storm’s dense center, with less symmetry, and the upper layers of its core will be cooler. Tropical systems get most of their energy from warm water drawn into the atmosphere through the center, while subtropical systems get most of their energy from “baroclinic” sources, meaning they mix with adjacent high or low pressure systems and trade off temperature and pressure in an attempt to balance.

Since it hasn’t become a tropical system, its path and strength are hard to predict, and the five-day cone stretches from south of Miami to it without even making landfall, according to the NHC, but off the coast of the United States. Daytona Beach before being pulled back northeast.

“There are still several scenarios that could play out with the trajectory of this system. It could move inland over parts of the Florida peninsula,” said Michael Brennan, acting deputy director of the NHC, as the system was still forming Sunday. “It may turn north near or along the east coast of Florida, or it may stay offshore and move more toward the Georgia and Carolina coasts. If we get through the next few days, this will become more Good focus, but as the system is still developing, the uncertainty and exact details of how it will move and evolve will be relatively high.”

Regardless of the path, its reach could bring the risk of dangerous storm surges, damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

“We could see potential higher end impacts, dangerous storm surges, potential winds, strong tropical storm destructive winds … if this system does continue and become a hurricane, maybe even hurricane strength, and if the storm continues and doesn’t The development of these tropical features makes it possible to track heavy rainfall at or near the core of the storm,” Brennan said.

Storm surge in the Bahamas is now likely to be 3 to 5 feet higher than normal, along with 2 to 4 inches of rain, with some areas likely to receive as much as 6 inches through Thursday.

The NHC said the coast of Florida runs north from North Palm Beach into Georgia, including St. Storm surges of 3 to 5 feet are likely to be seen in the Johns River, 2 to 4 feet south of North Palms all the way to Hallandale Beach.

Florida’s extensive damage from September’s Hurricane Ian flooded much of the central state of the state with Ian’s heavy rain, including near the St. Johns River. Johns River. According to the National Weather Service, more rain dumping from the system could stress the groundwater table, which is still falling since the hurricane, and could lead to more flooding.

“Dangerous ocean conditions will continue to worsen as winds build the ocean throughout the day today,” the NWS said in its forecast discussion Monday morning. “These winds and waves will make beach conditions dangerous, producing choppy waves that endanger the The rapids of life and provide increasing concern for beach erosion later today and tonight.”

Peak winds in eastern central Florida are expected to begin Wednesday night and continue through Thursday, the National Weather Service said, with the threat of tornadoes likely to continue into Wednesday and Wednesday night as the center moves closer to Florida’s east coast.

“High winds before and during the storm’s passage may produce gusts of over 50-60 mph in coastal communities, with winds in the region of 35-50 mph inland,” the forecast said. “In addition, the storm’s total rainfall Expect to reach 4-6 inches along the coast and even to the St. Johns River in Brevard County, 3-4 inches in most of the area, and 2-3 inches north of Lake County and areas west of the Florida Turnpike, local may be higher.”

Earlier Monday, DeSantis said state emergency officials were in contact with all 67 counties in the state to identify potential resource gaps and develop a plan for the state to respond quickly and effectively to the system.

“I encourage all Floridians to prepare and plan in the event a storm hits Florida,” he said in the release.

The release reminds Floridians to “know if they live in evacuation zones, low-lying, flood-prone areas, mobile homes, or unsafe structures during hurricane season. For residents, learn about their homes and their protection against strong winds and heavy rain. ability is also very important.”

One of the counties where Ian has wreaked havoc on the waterfront is Volusia, where emergency director Jim Judge said winds from the northern and eastern quadrants of the system again posed a particular threat.

“We need to take this storm very seriously as it could lead to more coastal erosion, which could be devastating for our waterfront properties affected by Hurricane Ian,” he said. “We’re also looking at 4 to 8 inches of rain as of Friday, which could lead to flooding, as well as strong winds from tropical storms that could cause widespread power outages.”

The NHC will make its next announcement, including an updated path forecast, at 4 p.m. EST.

Nicole becomes the 14th named system for the 2022 hurricane season, continuing the above-average storm production in recent years. 2020 saw a record 30 naming storms, while 2021 produced 21 naming systems.

The Atlantic hurricane season ends in November. 30.

“Don’t let the fact that the calendar shows November or hurricane season fatigue make you complacent about preparing for this storm,” the NWS warned in its advisory. “Make sure your hurricane supply tanks are stocked and you have an appropriate Plan, especially if you live along the coast or in an area prone to flooding or have recently experienced flooding.”