Prisco’s Week 13 NFL picks: 49ers cool off Tua’s Dolphins, Chiefs retaliate against Bengals in one-point thriller

The trio was almost done last week.

As part of the Pick Six Podcast, I went 11-5 straight, 3-2-1, but my CBSSports.com Expert Picks went 8-8. Why couldn’t the Packers score late to get the screen instead of kicking that field goal?

If so, it’s another solid week. 3-2-1 improves my best betting record to a scorching 40-27-3. I will accept it. My ATS total record is now 82-90-8 and my direct record is 106-74-0.

We’re now into the December race, which means it’s crunch time. It also means it’s time for the contenders to actually show up on the field and pick their matches. There are six more weeks. Let’s end with a grand sprint.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-4)

Thursdays at 8:15pm ET (Amazon Prime Video)

Last year, the Bills knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs, so you know the Patriots want to get back at them for that. Both teams played on Thanksgiving, so they both had a break. But Josh Allen has been terrific against the Patriots in recent years, going 4-1 in his past five games. This is still true. Bill won.

Pick: Bills 28, Patriots 21

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (+1)

Sundays at 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Steelers have back-to-back road games outside the conference zone, and the week is short. It’s hard to do. Preparing for the Falcons’ offense in just one week is also difficult. Atlanta lost to Washington last week, but will bounce back and beat the Steelers.

Pick: Falcons 23, Steelers 20

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8)

Sundays at 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Broncos are dead on offense, and playing back-to-back road games is never a good thing, especially against a team that’s been losing so badly. The Ravens haven’t exactly ignited things offensively, but they’ll do enough here to win games and keep the Broncos’ misery going all season long.

Pick: Ravens 26, Broncos 10

Green Bay Packers (-4) at Chicago Bears

Sundays at 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Aaron Rodgers should be in this game, which is not a good thing for the Bears. He’s had them throughout his career. Rodgers is injured, but Justin Fields will be injured for the Bears if he plays. Look for the Packers to go to Soldier Field and win a game against a team they’ve dominated in recent years.

Pick: Packers 27, Bears 17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-1)

Sundays at 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

The Jaguars had an impressive home win over the Ravens, while the Lions lost to the Bills on Thanksgiving. Both teams can score, which means the game is likely to get loose. If Trevor Lawrence stays hot and the Lions also score, look for a lot of points. The Jaguars will win the shootout.

Pick: Jaguars 33, Lions 30

Cleveland Browns (-7) vs. Houston Texans

Sundays at 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

It’s the return of Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. This is his first game against his old club. How perfect. Will there be a break? Does it matter to the Texans? Well, that’s not the case. The Browns won big.

Pick: Browns 30, Texans 14

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Sundays at 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This game is interesting because of the battle between the Vikings offense and the Jets defense, two very strong units. I think the Vikings will take full advantage of this. So what did Mike White do for the Jets’ offense? I don’t think he’s going to play as well as he did last week. The Vikings won.

Pick: Vikings 23, Jets 17

Washington Commanders, New York Giants (-2.5)

Sundays at 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

This suddenly became a playoff race. Both teams are here now. The Commanders have won six of seven and three in a row through running and good defense. The Giants use the same formula to win games. Commanders have better defenses and it will show. They keep winning.

Pick: Commanders 23, Giants 19

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (+5)

Sundays at 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

It’s a match that matches two teams that want to manage football. The Eagles were solid against the Packers, but the Titans’ defense was much better. The Titans will use Derrick Henry to counter the Eagles’ inability to stop a run defense. This game could end all games soon. The Eagles take it, but the Titans will hang around.

Pick: Eagles 24, Titans 23

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+7.5)

4:05 p.m. ET Sunday (Fox, FuboTV)

The Rams are a mess, they’re screwed. Seattle lost at home to the poorly defensive Raiders. The good news is that the Rams’ offense is terrible. Seattle will get back on track here. The Seahawks won, but they were outnumbered.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Rams 20

Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4)

4:05 p.m. ET Sunday (Fox, FuboTV)

This is one of the best games of the week. Miami’s offense against the 49ers’ defense will be a feast to watch. Can the 49ers slow down the passing game between Tua Tagovailoa and Miami. Another thing to watch is whether Miami’s consistently poor defense can slow down the 49ers’ offense. I don’t think they do. The 49ers will take it.

Pick: 49ers 28, Dolphins 22

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (+2)

Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

It’s a rematch of last January’s AFC Championship Game, which was won by the Bengals in Kansas City. The Bengals also beat the Chiefs at home last year. This Chiefs team is currently the best in the league. Patrick Mahomes and the passing game will be hard to stop. But Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will be back too. It’s going to be a shootout. The Chiefs won a close game.

Pick: Chiefs 35, Bengals 34

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5)

Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Both teams had dramatic victories last week that were much needed. The Raiders see running back Josh Jacobs running wild, and he can counter the Chargers’ poor run defense here. But expect Justin Herbert to have a big day, too. It’s going to be crazy, but the Raiders will take it.

Pick: Raiders 34, Chargers 31

Indianapolis Colts (-11) at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)

The Cowboys’ defensive line is a major mismatch with the Colts’ offensive line. Matt Ryan could be in for a long night. Not only that, but the Cowboys will be rested when the Colts play on the road in just one week. It’s hard to do. blow out.

Pick: Cowboys 30, Colts 16

New Orleans Saints (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8:15 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN, FuboTV)

Both have losing records, but this is a big division game. Do you believe? The Saints had great success during Tom Brady’s time in Tampa. But this is a different Saints team. Their offense is limited. That came up.

Pick: Bucks 20, Saints 19