- Nicole is expected to become a hurricane and make landfall in Florida tonight.
- Hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm warnings have been issued for Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.
- Coastal flooding, strong winds, heavy rain and tornadoes are expected along the southeast coast.
- Flooding, strong winds and some tornadoes are possible in the rest of the east Friday into early Saturday.
Nicole is expected to make landfall in Florida as a hurricane, but its effects, which include prolonged coastal flooding, beach erosion, strong winds, high waves, heavy rain and tornadoes, will affect the Southeast and other parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
current state
Nicole’s center is now reaching the northwest Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center analysis below, Nicole’s high wind field means tropical storm strong winds (39 mph or greater) extend west, north and east of the center, including the east coast of Florida.
Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are developing on and near Florida’s Atlantic coast. Several wind gusts in excess of 50 mph were reported at Fort Worth Pier and Sewalls Point.
Huge pounding waves and coastal flooding also affected much of the southeast coast.The water level has reached the target About 2 feet above normal Along Florida’s Atlantic coast, with high tide Wednesday morning.
Flooding was reported around houses on Anastasia Island near St. Petersburg.Augustine and on some streets West Palm Beach, Wednesday.This Flagler Beach Pierwhich was damaged during Hurricane Ian, suffered additional damage from a pounding wave Wednesday morning.
Light street flooding was also reported in Charleston, South Carolina, before and after high tide early Wednesday.
Radar showed the showers continued to push toward Florida, and the heavier rainbands in the Bahamas pushed westward.
Warnings and Precautions
Hurricane warnings have been issued for areas along Florida’s Atlantic coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler-Volusia county line, including Melbourne and Vero Beach. That means hurricane conditions are expected in these areas tonight or tonight.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for vast areas of southern, central and northern Florida and parts of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Tropical storm conditions are either ongoing or will develop in these areas later today or tonight.
Cities under tropical storm warnings include Orlando, Fort Myers, Tampa and Tallahassee in Florida, Savannah in Georgia and Charleston in South Carolina.
Elsewhere, hurricane and tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the northwest Bahamas. Some parts of southeastern Florida remain under tropical storm or hurricane watch.
A storm surge warning was in effect from North Palm Beach, Florida, to Greene County, Georgia, and a stretch of St. Louis. The Johns River in northeastern Florida flows into the Atlantic Ocean from Georgetown to just north of Jacksonville Beach. That means dangerous, life-threatening coastal flooding is expected in these areas.
Storm surge monitoring extends from northern Greene County, Georgia, to the South Santee River, South Carolina, south from North Palm Beach, Florida, to Hallandale Beach, Florida, and from Anclote Bay along a portion of Florida’s Gulf Coast Head north to Indian Pass. That means these areas could be inundated by storm surge.
predicted trajectory, intensity
Nicole will continue her journey west to the Bahamas and Florida today.
Nicole is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane near the northwest Bahamas on Wednesday, then maintain that intensity as it makes landfall along Florida’s Atlantic coast sometime late Wednesday night or early Thursday. However, before the landing happens, the impact is already here, as we’ll detail below.
Nicole will then curl north near or over Florida before being carried away on Friday by a cold front that pushes the storm northeast across the southeastern states. The remaining energy and moisture from Nicole will work with the cold front to squeeze out heavy rain on the East Coast into Saturday.
Current state, predicted path
(The red shaded area indicates the potential path of the tropical cyclone center. It is important to note that the effects of any tropical cyclone (especially heavy rain, high waves, coastal flooding, high winds) will often extend beyond their predicted path.)
forecast impact
Here’s a breakdown of what to expect from Nicole. Keep in mind that Nicole’s large size means that its effects will travel farther away from its center, arrive sooner than channels in its center, and last longer.
Storm surge, coastal flooding, beach erosion
Ahead of Nicole’s center, persistent onshore winds will cause coastal flooding in some areas through Thursday or Friday along parts of the southeastern coast from Florida to the Carolinas.
This high tide coastal flooding increases daily and peaks as storm surge approaches the Nicole Center. Thursday morning. The National Hurricane Center’s peak storm surge forecast (if it occurs at high tide) is shown below.
Given the multiple high tide cycles of coastal flooding and high waves on storm surges, severe beach erosion and infrastructure damage are expected in parts of Florida’s east coast and Georgia coast.This is especially true for East Florida coast damaged by Hurricane Ian late September.
Moderate to severe coastal flooding is also possible as far north as the Carolinas, including Charleston, South Carolina, and Tybee Island, Georgia.
An exception to this general situation is part of Florida’s western Gulf Coast. Tides will start much lower than normal due to winds blowing offshore. But by late Thursday, once Nicole’s center moves north, water levels could rise rapidly as winds turn overland. This could cause some coastal flooding and storm surge in the areas pictured below to peak Thursday night, but could continue into Friday.
wind
Wind gusts were already building on the southeast coast before Nicole made landfall.
Tropical storm strong winds (39 mph or greater) will continue to spread across much of the Florida peninsula tonight.
Hurricane conditions (winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected to reach the hurricane warning area in eastern Florida Wednesday night.
Stronger wind gusts on the Florida peninsula could bring down trees or power outages in some areas.
rainfall
Starting Wednesday, the heaviest rains will reach Florida first, before spreading north to parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Thursday through Friday.
Parts of central and northern Florida are expected to receive the heaviest rainfall, including some areas flooded by Hurricane Ian’s rain. Holy part. The Johns River is still above flood level after Ian rained about six weeks ago. According to the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center, St. The Johns River has been slowly declining in recent weeks and Ian after Ian will transition to a slowly rising water level shortly after Nicole’s rain.
Nicole’s wetness combined with an incoming cold front will cause heavy rain Friday through Saturday in the Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and northeast.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 5 inches is possible from parts of southern Florida to the Carolinas, Georgia, the mid-Atlantic and the northeast, with higher local rainfall.
This could lead to localized flash floods and flooding of some rivers, especially in the Appalachian Mountains and adjacent foothills and parts of the Northeast.
tornado
As with most landfall storms, some isolated tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are also possible for Nicole’s rainbands from Wednesday through Friday.
See the schedule below.
-Wednesday to Wednesday night: Eastern and Central Florida
-Thursday to Thursday night: Northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.
– Friday-Friday night: Central and eastern Carolina into the mid-Atlantic.
Nicole can only be Fourth hurricane makes landfall in continental U.S. in November In records dating back to the mid-19th century, and for the first time in 37 years.
(tomorrow: It’s not surprising to see tropical systems and winter storms in the U.S. at the same time)
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