In the last pending Senate race in 2022, Democratic senators. Georgia’s Raphael Warnock has a narrow lead over Republican challenger Herschel Walker among those likely to vote in Tuesday’s runoff, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
Walker faced widespread questions about his honesty and received negative support, while nearly half of those who supported him said they voted more against Warnock than for Walker, the poll showed. Voters’ moderately more positive views of Warnock and a solid supporter base appear to be boosting the incumbent in new polls.
Overall, 52 percent of likely voters said they planned to back Warnock in Tuesday’s runoff, with 48 percent choosing Walker. Partisanship is deeply entrenched on both sides, with almost all Democrats (99 percent) backing Warnock and 95 percent of Republicans backing Walker. Independents broke Warnock’s lead 61 percent to 36 percent, but made up a relatively small 17 percent of likely voters, compared with the first-round CNN exit in this election last month. In the poll, it was 24%. (Warnock narrowly led Walker in November, but did not secure the majority needed to avoid a runoff.)
White voters remain broadly behind Walker ahead of Tuesday’s election: 69 percent back him in the new poll, 30 percent back Warnock, while black voters likely to vote next week are almost unanimously backing Democrats ( 96% Warnock to 3% Walker). The divisions are similar to the racial divide in the 2021 runoff, when Warnock initially won the seat, backed by 93% of black voters compared with 71% of white voters for his Republican opponent, then-senator. According to a CNN exit poll, Kelly Loeffler is in favor.
There is also a wide age gap in the upcoming election, with voters under 35 trailing Warnock by a wide margin (74 per cent to 25 per cent), and those aged 65 or over by 26 percentage points (63 per cent to 37 per cent). %) over Walker. Younger white voters are more polarized than older white voters (52% of white voters under 45 back Walker, 48% back Warnock, and 75% of white voters 45 or older say They supported Walker). Support for Warnock was roughly equal among younger and older black voters.
White voters without a college degree are heavily behind Walker — 83 percent back him — while white voters with four-year degrees are split sharply, 51 percent for Walker to 47 percent for Warnock. White women with degrees favored Warnock (53% Warnock to 44%), while white men with degrees favored Walker (58% Walker to 42% Warnock).
Warnock supporters generally said they voted for their candidate (83%) rather than against Walker (17%), but the picture was more mixed among those who supported Walker (52% said they voted more for him, 47 per cent against Warnock).
Polls suggest that disparity may be a factor driving turnout. The runoff between Warnock and Walker was the only ballot contest in most of the state, and voters who said they voted more for the Senate candidate than against the other expressed stronger motivation to vote — 79 % of likely voters who said they voted for their chosen candidate were very motivated to vote, compared to 69% who said their vote was more against.
There are multiple indications in the polls that negative perceptions of Walker could also weigh on his chances.
In addition to the gap in affirmative support behind each person’s candidacy, there is also a big difference in Warnock’s and Walker’s individual views. Sentiment toward Warnock skews slightly positive, with 50% of likely voters favoring and 45% disapproving, while Georgia voters are much more likely to view Walker negatively (52%) than positively (39%) .
An overwhelming majority felt Walker was dishonest and untrustworthy — 59 percent felt that way, 18 percent of whom said they planned to vote Republican. A slim majority of 52% said they believed Warnock was honest and trustworthy, and perceptions of his honesty were strongly correlated with voting choice (93% of Warnock’s own voters thought he was honest, 91% of Walker’s voters % think Warnock is dishonest). Walker leads by a wide margin among likely voters who think neither Walker nor Warnock is honest and trustworthy (they drop Walker from 71% to Warnock’s 27%) .
Likely voters were more likely than Walker to think Warnock was eligible to be a senator (52% said it described Warnock better, 27% said Walker, 21% said both ineligible); as someone who effectively represented Georgia in Congress (50% Warnock, 41% Walker, 8% neither); as a person of good judgment (50% Warnock, 33% Walker, 17% % neither); and as someone with the right priorities (49% Warnock, 43% Walker, 7% neither). Among about one in five likely voters who think neither candidate is qualified, about nine in 10 support Walker (92%), and among those who think neither candidate has good judgment, he Won about 8 out of 10 people (82% said they I would vote for Walker).
Still, when asked directly whether their vote was more about a candidate’s position on an issue or their character and integrity, 57 percent of likely voters said the question was the more important factor, with 42 percent choosing character and integrity. Upright. Of those who said these issues were their top concerns, 64% voted for Walker; when it came to character, 74% liked Warnock.
Nearly half of likely voters say the economy is their top issue in this runoff (46%), while 17% say voting rights and electoral integrity are their top concerns, while 16% choose abortion as their top concern. primary issue. Walker has the support of 68 percent among economically focused voters, while those who call for elections and vote for their top issue (79 percent) and those most concerned about abortion (78 percent) support Warnock overwhelmingly.
About half of likely voters (48%) said abortion should be legal in most cases (37% said it should be legal in all cases, 11% said it should be legal in most cases), while 52% of people said abortion should be legal only in certain circumstances (39%) or should be illegal in all circumstances (13%). The question was hugely divided among voters: Voters who said it should be legal in most or all cases strongly backed Warnock, with 88 percent backing him and 88 percent backing Warnock. Eleven percent backed Walker, while those who said it was legal in only a few cases or illegal in all cases were generally in favor of Walker — 82 percent backing him, 18 percent backing Warnock.
After a protracted legal battle over when early voting is allowed before the runoff, Georgia voters may largely believe the rules for voting in the runoff are correct. About one in five said they thought the rules made voting too difficult (21%), a small minority said it was too easy (14%), and about two-thirds said the rules were correct ( 66%). Liberals (47%), voters who say voting rights and electoral integrity are top concerns (39%) and Democrats (38%) are the most likely to say the rules make voting too difficult.
President Joe Biden has 42 percent approval to 57 percent disapproval in the new poll, about the same as a CNN exit poll of Georgia voters who voted in the first round of this Senate race last November ( 41% in favor, 58% against). But both Biden and his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, received negative reviews in Georgia. In the new poll, 41% of people have a favorable view of Biden and 52% unfavorable views, while views of Trump are 39% favorable and 54% unfavorable.
The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS in Georgia from November 25-29, using a combination of online and telephone interviews. Survey samples were originally drawn from two sources—a probability-based online panel and a registration-based sample—and combined. Respondents were initially contacted by mail, phone or email. The results in the full sample of 1,886 registered voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Likely voters are identified through a series of questions about their intentions, interests and past voting history. The result of the 1,184 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.